A Deeper Dive: Optimizing the Circles Course Strategy with Data

A Deeper Dive: Optimizing the Circles Course Strategy with Data

The Circles Course Strategy is not a one-size-fits-all approach. It's a personalized, data-driven method that accounts for your unique style, skills, and past performances. It's about making intelligent decisions on the golf course based on facts, statistics, and likelihoods. Let's delve into the optimization of the Circles Course Strategy with the help of data analysis.

An Algorithmic Approach to the Circles Course Strategy

Our strategy relies heavily on algorithms that use mathematical models based on your previous round performances. This data is used to compute the likely scores from different second-shot positions. We offer an in-depth strategy guide for each hole, which includes:

  1. Proposed target line and distance for the tee shot, formulated for the lowest anticipated hole score.
  2. Estimation of the zone within which around half of approach shots should finish, given different approach lengths.

While our strategies might appear aggressive, they are designed with the intention of attaining the lowest possible score when playing optimally. That said, they do not dictate a specific tee line but provide a basis for analyzing the effects on your score when you adopt a more conservative or assertive stance.

The Shotgun Dispersion Model

Our strategy accommodates inevitable direction and/or distance errors in every shot. Often described as a 'shotgun' dispersion pattern, we employ mathematical models to analyze these errors, aiding us in understanding outcome probabilities and making predictions.

This entails calculating the likelihood of different misses. For instance, we can determine how much more probable a 40-yard miss to the left is on a 300-yard drive compared to a 10-yard miss to the right on a 250-yard drive. Similarly, we can calculate the chances of hitting a 20-yard wide fairway at 250 yards or the odds of a tee shot landing in a bunker that's 30 yards off the target line.

Balancing Risks and Rewards

Our strategy effectively balances the benefits of a longer tee shot (resulting in a shorter approach shot) against the increased risk of a longer drive leading to an unfavourable lie. This could either be due to a hazard only being in play at a longer distance, or a longer shot having a higher chance of missing further left or right of the target.

The proposed tee shot target line and length is predicted to yield the lowest average hole score if you were to play the hole countless times. This is based on Circles data from the past six months, considering the top 30th percentile.

Understanding Dispersion Zones

We also indicate the median dispersion zones on the greens - these represent areas where around 50th percentile of balls would finish if thousands were targeted at the greens center. These zones help golfers understand where their approach shots are most likely to land, considering their skills and historical performance.

The Value of Probability

The entire process of optimizing the Circles Course Strategy is steeped in probability. It's akin to having a player play the hole numerous times with different tee shot targets, and then choosing the target which resulted in the lowest average score for the hole.

Our analysis can't guarantee the result of any individual attempt. The key point is that there's uncertainty in every shot's outcome. Our analysis suggests the option that yields the best outcome on average - it's the "percentage play".

A Unique, Personalized Approach

The strategy leverages dispersion patterns from your previous rounds entered in Circles, thus making it completely unique to you. Target line and length analyses were conducted from the back of the tee as per your input.


However, please note the limitations of our approach. For instance, factors such as the height of trees o, weather conditions, pin locations, or slope on fairways aren't accounted.

Activate your free trial

Enjoy course insights, training plans, coach connect, and course strategy tools.

Free 14-day trial. No credit card required

Free 14-Day Trial